Two scenarios for Vietnam’s economic recovery
Vietnam has to be very cautious when choosing and implementing a plan to reactivate the economy. The government, in a report to the National Assembly’s Standing Committee, projected two economic growth scenarios for this year.
With the first scenario, if Vietnam can contain Covid-19 in the second half of April, and its important trade and investment partners can control the epidemic in Q3, the GDP in 2020 would grow by 4.4-5.2 percent compared with 2019, or 1.6-2.4 percentage points lower than initially planned.
With the second scenario, if Vietnam’s partners can only contain the epidemic in Q4, Vietnam’s GDP growth rate would be 3.6-4.4 percent only, or 2.4-3.2 percentage points lower than initially planned.
Kim Chi
